ERCOT (Texas) Future Electricity Prices Power Demand Outlook 2025

Future Electricity Prices. As calendar year 2024 comes to a close, a year marked by extreme volatility and electricity price swings, let’s take a look at what lies ahead in ERCOT for 2025.

ERCOT’s power demand outlook for 2025 reflects continued growth driven by several factors. A key driver is the expansion of large flexible loads (LFL), including data centers and cryptocurrency mining facilities. These operations are expected to consume 54 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2025, a nearly 60% increase from 2024, representing about 10% of ERCOT’s total forecasted electricity consumption. ERCOT expects to approve around 9,500 MW of LFL capacity by the end of 2025.

The grid could see tight supply conditions if renewable energy underperforms during peak times. This is a concern, especially as the dependency on intermittent solar and wind power increases, with little growth in dispatchable power sources like natural gas.

Additionally, overall demand growth will be supported by the expanding population and economic activity in Texas. By 2030, ERCOT forecasts a load increase of 11%, with major contributions from the Permian Basin (expected to add 13 GW of load) and data centers (expected to reach 6.4 GW by 2030).

To manage this demand, ERCOT is offering subsidies to encourage dispatchable load resources like natural gas generation. The grid’s reliability will increasingly depend on flexible and dispatchable resources to meet peak demand.

Looking beyond 2025, ERCOT forecasts peak demand is expected to approach or surpass 150 GW by 2030, reflecting the immense pressure on the grid from Texas’s rapid economic and population growth.